SMPG Tool
Introduction
The Seasonal Monitoring and Probability Generator (SMPG) tool is a powerful new resource designed to help users monitor the progression of the rainy season across various spatial units. These could include individual polygons, administrative regions, agricultural zones, watersheds, or custom-defined areas. The SMPG operates using either 5-day or 10-day total rainfall time series data for each polygon, enabling a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the evolution of the rainy season.
The tool provides a range of outputs, including numerical, graphical, and geographical products. It does this by comparing current rainfall data with long-term averages (LTA) and historical records from selected years, such as analog years. Additionally, the SMPG features an Outlook Module that simulates and calculates probabilities for the End of Season (EOS) by completing the season with historical data from user-selected years.
To ensure seamless integration into existing workflows, the SMPG is designed as a plugin for QGIS. It utilizes time series data extracted for each polygon, making it an intuitive addition to GIS-based monitoring and analysis systems.
The SMPG is directly aligned with Step 4 of FEWS NET’s agroclimatology assumption development process, where it plays a critical role in monitoring the rainy season's development using available data. Below is a summary of the FEWS NET process and the SMPG’s role within it:
Understand the climatology for the area of concern well in advance of the Start of Season (SOS).
Evaluate current climate modes approximately three months before SOS and continue until the End of Season (EOS).
Interpret available forecasts starting about two months before SOS and continuing through EOS.
Incorporate monitoring data from remote sensing and other sources from SOS through EOS.
By enabling detailed monitoring and probabilistic forecasting, the SMPG tool represents a significant advancement in seasonal rainfall monitoring, empowering users to make informed decisions for agriculture and food security, water resource management, disaster preparedness, energy, and public health. The SMPG tool is especially useful for statistical intra-seasonal forecasting, bridging the gap between weather forecasting and seasonal forecasting. This user friendly tool supports:
Climate data analysis.
The generation of climate information products in spatial resolutions that support decision making at the regional, national and district levels.
The generation of regional tailored products, addressing regions of common climate characteristics.
The generation of a range of probabilistic outlooks that support consensus-based outlooks by Regional Climate Outlook Forums.
Currently the tool does not have a methodology for model validation nor forecast verification, which is something that must necessarily be considered as future work and is currently the responsibility of the user.
Using the Manual
The SMPG manual contains the following pages: